Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
